Job No. 1 for governor candidates: Name recognition

The No. 1 challenge for 2026 gubernatorial candidates will be ensuring Wisconsin voters know them well enough that they can advance to the general election, Marquette University Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin tells WisPolitics’ “Capitol Chats” podcast.

So far, one Dem, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, and two Republicans, businessman Bill Berrien and Washington County Exec Josh Schoemann, have formally entered the race to succeed Gov. Tony Evers. Franklin said each of them “will be virtually unknown statewide when they run.”

“So we will see a tremendous amount of campaigning and increasing amount of advertising over next winter and spring, for sure, and early summer,” Franklin said. “But judging from the past, their name recognition numbers are still not likely to move a whole lot in April, May, June. It’ll only be in that period from July to August that we see a significant uptick, especially for the winners, who usually, but not always, usually are the best-known people.”

Party primaries are likely next year as it’s the first open governor’s race in Wisconsin since 2010. Those primaries will be in August 2026.

Franklin said despite Rodriguez’s current role in the Evers administration, name ID will still be a challenge for her. He noted when former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes ran for U.S. Senate in 2022, his name recognition was also low.

Franklin said while there may be an advantage to being able to tout her current role, “the criticisms that Republicans would have weighed in on against Tony Evers, they will certainly try to transfer, in part, to Rodriguez.”

“We’ll see how effective that is, or how much they focus on that. But there is an element of being tied to an incumbent,” Franklin said, adding Evers was a “relatively popular” governor, with his job approval above 50% in the vast majority of Marquette Law School polls.

While Franklin said he hasn’t polled on Berrien or Schoemann, he pointed to U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany’s name ID for context. In June 2023, 75% of respondents didn’t know enough to have an opinion of the Minocqua Republican, who is also weighing a gubernatorial bid, Franklin said.

“I think we’re very confident that their name recognition will be even lower than that,” Franklin said.

Still, he noted Berrien has started running TV ads early on in the race, which could have an impact.

“And I think it’s an open question whether early advertising really can get your foot in the door, get people to be a little more familiar with your name, or whether really it’s a waste of money because people don’t tune in until 9 months, 10 months, 11 months from now,” Franklin said.

A number of potential candidates are considering entering the race, including: Tiffany; Barnes; Milwaukee County Exec David Crowley; Rep. Francesca Hong, D-Madison; Sen. Kelda Roys, D-Madison; and Attorney General Josh Kaul.

The Capitol Report is written by editorial staff at WisPolitics.com, a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics, and is distributed for publication by members of the Wisconsin Newspaper Association.