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Why you think the way you do: A primer on heuristics

Why you think the way you do: A primer on heuristics Why you think the way you do: A primer on heuristics

We all have subconscious patterns of making decisions that we rely upon every day. But can those patterns ever lead us astray?

Heuristics are mental shortcuts that allow people to solve problems and make judgments quickly and efficiently. They rely on generalizations, or rules of thumb, that reduce cognitive load. While they are helpful, they can lead to biases or even stereotypes.

“They can be effective for making immediate judgments; however, they often result in irrational or inaccurate conclusions,” an article for The Decision Lab, an applied research and innovation firm, states.

As an example, the affect heuristic refers to the tendency to make decisions based on emotions or what you feel in the moment, rather than an objective analysis of the data available. This heuristic came into play after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. People were afraid to travel on planes with the memory of the attacks fresh in their minds, so America saw a surge in the number of people driving, even though statistically a person is much more likely to die in a car crash than a plane crash. Because there were more people driving in the months after the attacks, there was a marked increase in highway deaths. Psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer even found that the increase in highway deaths among people who chose to drive instead of fly in the months following 9/11 exceeded the number of victims in the actual attacks.

Although not many examples are nearly as dramatic as that last one, heuristics can and do determine the way we approach many scenarios of life. Other heuristics include availability, scarcity, familiarity, representativeness, anchoring, and trial and error.

The availability heuristic describes our tendency to use information that comes to mind quickly and easily when making decisions about the future or when assessing the frequency with which an event occurs.

As an example, if asked which state has more tornadoes, Kansas or Nebraska, people tend to choose Kansas, because they already have an association of a famous tornado in Kansas, albeit fictional – the twister that whisked Dorothy away in “The Wizard of Oz.” Because that example readily comes to mind, whereas people have a harder time thinking of a tornado they know of that happened in Nebraska, they think tornadoes happen in Kansas more often. However, the two states actually report about the same number of tornadoes.

The scarcity heuristic dictates that people tend to place more inherent value on things that are scarce or not as easily available. Marketers take advantage of this by advertising products as “available for a limited time only,” or they encourage you to “get yours while supplies last.” By being aware of this mental tendency, we can consciously choose to stop and consider whether the product we’re contemplating buying is really that great after all. The familiarity heuristic referes to people’s tendency to look more favorably on individuals, things or places they’ve experienced before. Given the choice between two options, people are often more inclined to choose the known option even if the new option provides more proven benefits.

The representative heuristic involves using a mental prototype in one’s mind to form judgments on others of that type.

“When you are trying to decide if someone is trustworthy, you might compare aspects of the individual to other mental examples you hold. A soft-spoken older woman might remind you of your grandmother, so you might immediately assume that she is kind, gentle, and trustworthy. However, this is an example of a heuristic bias, as you can’t know someone is trustworthy based on their age alone,” Kendra Cherry writes for VeryWell Mind.

The concept of heuristics is not new; psychologist Herbert Simon introduced it in the 1950s. He rightly observed that the human mind has limitations when it comes to making judgments – both limitations in the amount of time we have to make a decision and limitations in the amount of information we possess, as it’s impossible to know absolutely all of the information about a situation. A purely rational decision would require weighing all the potential costs and possible benefits of every alternative.

In the 1970s, psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman took Simon’s research a step further by explaining that heuristics are the modes of thinking that enable us to make sense of the world around us. So while Simon demonstrated that humans were limited in their ability to make rational decisions, Tversky and Kahneman demonstrated the workarounds the human brain utilizes.

According to dual-process theories of cognition, there are two types of thinking: System 1 and System 2. “System 1 operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control. It is driven by immediate perceptual and emotional impressions. In contrast, System 2 involves more deliberate, effortful, and analytical thinking,” Bryce Hoffman writes for Forbes.

Heuristics stem from System 1 thinking. However, neither System 1 nor System 2 thinking is infallible, Kahneman pointed out. Ideally, System 1 and System 2 thinking should be used to complement each other.

Space prevents me from writing about the other types of heuristics, but it’s an interesting topic to research further.

There’s value in looking at why we think the way we do, to enable us to make better, more well-informed decisions. While we certainly don’t need to step back and analyze every little decision we make – nor could we, for that matter – if it’s a major life decision, it may be wise to take a step back and consider what cognitive biases could be playing into our decision.

Cherry offers a few tips for effective decision making: slow down, identify the goal, process your emotions to ensure you’re not making the decision solely based on emotions, and recognize all-or-nothing thinking. Sometimes the best answer lies in compromise or trying a new path and modifying as you go along.

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